SPC MD 412



MD 0412 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92… FOR SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS

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Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...South FL and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...

Valid 192311Z - 200045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind will continue this
evening as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward. If there is an
uptick in thunderstorm intensity over the next hour, then a watch
extension into the remainder of south Florida may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...At 23Z, a line of thunderstorms is advancing eastward
across the southern FL peninsula, with additional thunderstorm
development recently noted down into the FL Keys. This activity
should continue to progress eastward through the remainder of south
FL and the FL Keys between now and 02Z, as it moves through a warm,
moist, and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) environment.
Effective shear of 40-50 kt is sufficient to support updraft
organization, but thus far, convection has remained relatively
disorganized, with only weak midlevel rotation noted and no tendency
for the development of bowing segments or embedded supercells. 

The potential for an uptick in storm organization with time remains
uncertain, as convection becomes increasingly removed from the
primary upper low across the TN Valley. However, given the otherwise
favorable environment, the threat remains for at least isolated
damaging wind this evening. If there is an uptick in organization
over the next hour or so, then it may become necessary to extend WW
92 into the remainder of south FL, but otherwise the threat should
remain isolated and the watch can be cleared as the line advances
eastward.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON   25878140 27108083 27728039 27097989 26097999 25548011
            25308023 25018044 24698092 24518181 24628211 24928192
            25878140 

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