SPC MD 413



MD 0413 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MARYLAND…EASTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

MD 0413 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...eastern Maryland...eastern Virginia and southern
New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 200029Z - 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat may develop into the DelMarVa region during
the next hour and eventually into southern New Jersey. Damaging wind
and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats. Trends are being
monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms from central PA through eastern VA is
moving northeast at 50+ kt. Organized structures continue to be
observed within the line including bowing segments and some
supercells. The thermodynamic environment appears similar downstream
from the line over the DelMarVa region with 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE, but
based on the WAL 00Z RAOB, some marine influence in the form of a
shallow stable layer exists over a portion of this region. The
low-level jet strengthening to 65+ kt will maintain large 0-1 km
hodographs favorable for occasional mesocyclones and bowing segments
within the line. The marginal thermodynamic environment might serve
as a limiting factor. However, If storms maintain their structure as
they continue northeast, a tornado watch will probably be needed for
a portion of this region.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

LAT...LON   39797432 39197503 38427522 38177557 38937600 40047543
            39797432 

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