SPC MD 416



MD 0416 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN CO…NORTHWEST KS

MD 0416 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212022Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are expected with convection as it spreads
into northwest KS. WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
low-level lapse rates across the central High Plains this afternoon.
Surface temperatures have warmed into the 80s across east-central
CO...northeast along a boundary draped across northwest KS. As a
result, deeply mixed boundary layer is conducive for high-based
thunderstorm development. Over the last hour or so, convection has
developed along the trailing wind shift stretching from
Arapahoe-Elbert-Cheyenne counties in CO. This activity is expected
to propagate into northwest KS over the next few hours along
aforementioned wind shift. With relatively dry sub-cloud conditions
(temp-dew point spreads on the order of 40F), gusty winds should be
common beneath heavier rain bursts. Small hail may also accompany
the strongest storms.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   39410240 39419997 38450018 38280200 38640263 39410240 

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