SPC MD 470



MD 0470 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MO

MD 0470 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western/central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290010Z - 290215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail may continue for the
next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A band of elevated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of
MO is related to the eastern portion of a southerly low-level jet
and moisture return ongoing across the southern/central Plains. One
of these cells recently produced large hail up to 1.25 inches in
diameter just north of Kansas City. The low-level jet is expected to
strengthen to around 40-45 kt this evening, and an increase in
convective coverage appears probable over the next couple of hours.
An elevated mixed layer (noted on the 00Z Topeka sounding) emanating
from the High Plains will gradually steepen mid-level lapse rates
across much of MO, and MUCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg could develop.
Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt will support some supercell
structures, and large hail will be the main threat. The overall
severe risk appears quite isolated, and watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39429443 39729404 39759300 39459193 39039161 38699149
            38329177 38159241 38089323 38339415 38699456 39429443 

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