SPC MD 479



MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS

MD 0479 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 301739Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop over the next few
hours, with a tornado, large hail, or wind risk. A watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms along an outflow boundary continue to move east
across western IL into eastern MO. Surface analysis shows a warm
front currently extending eastward from this line across the St.
Louis vicinity and into southwest IN. 

Strong heating persists across the region, including north of the
warm front where winds are backed. Meanwhile, dewpoints are rising
into the upper 60s F from the south, resulting in rapid
destabilization. 

Area VWPs show ample shear to support supercells, including a threat
for very large hail and a few tornadoes. This could materialize out
of storms along the advancing outflow, and/or with new development
eastward along the warm front. The threat may extend as far east as
southwest IN.

..Jewell.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39089131 39249105 39568997 39608934 39568821 39408761
            39108746 38758744 38468744 38148775 38048870 38138974
            38189067 38159120 38259159 38419166 38679153 39089131 

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