SPC MD 483


MD 0483 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest
Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

Valid 302026Z - 302230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to continue across WW 111
through late this afternoon. Tornadoes, large hail and wind damage
will be possible over the next couple of hours. A potential for
strong tornadoes will also exist.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front
across north-central Oklahoma. Tornadic supercells are ongoing to
the southeast of the boundary from just north of Tulsa to southeast
of Tulsa. Surface dewpoints in the Tulsa area are in the upper 60s
and lower 70s F, contributing to moderate instability with MLCAPE
values of 2000-2500 J/kg. In addition, the Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows a
looped hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 300 m2/s2.
This will continue to be favorable for tornadoes with the more
dominant supercells. Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen even
more over the next few hours, suggesting a potential for strong
tornadoes will exist. The low-level shear also appears favorable for
tornadoes across a large area including southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. The amount of instability and deep-layer shear
will also be favorable for large hail and wind damage with
supercells and the more organized multicells.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35329513 35329574 36429569 36899544 37179504 37279453
            37249377 36879361 36569366 36119399 35329513 

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