SPC MD 486



MD 0486 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 111… FOR EASTERN OK…SOUTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST AR…SOUTHERN MO

MD 0486 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...Southern
MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

Valid 302300Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells continues in the short
term, with an eventual evolution into more of a damaging wind/QLCS
tornado risk possible later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Occasionally tornadic supercells are ongoing across
northeast OK, southwest MO, northwest AR at 23Z, within an
environment characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, effective
shear of 45-55 kt, and effective SRH of 250-400 m2/s2. While this
activity is not quite as intense as earlier today, there continues
to be a threat of tornadoes with any of the remaining semi-discrete
supercells south of the cold front, including the threat of a strong
tornado or two. 

Meanwhile, convection has congealed along and just behind the
primary cold front from southeast KS into northeast OK. As the
low-level jet intensifies into this region this evening, further
upscale growth is possible, and an eastward-moving complex capable
of damaging wind and QLCS-mode tornadoes may become the primary
threat later tonight.

..Dean.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36649587 37929532 38039378 37989243 37809158 37369087
            36859110 36479235 36069301 35649349 35169405 34789478
            36329587 36649587 

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