SPC MD 489


MD 0489 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far North TX...Northwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

Valid 010241Z - 010415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms moving out of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma
will continue to pose a tornado threat into the late evening, in
addition to some hail/wind risk. Further north, a threat for
damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado or two continues along the
cold front.

DISCUSSION...Rotation has recently increased with semi-discrete
cells moving out of north TX into southeast OK. Moderate instability
and strong low-level shear/helicity will support a tornado threat
with these cells as they move northeastward, with a strong tornado
or two remaining possible with any sustained supercells. Further
north, convection has consolidated into a QLCS along the cold front,
and this trend is likely to continue as the low-level jet remains
strong in advance of this line. Damaging wind will likely be the
primary threat as the QLCS moves eastward, though a brief tornado or
two will also be possible given the strong low-level shear in place.

With WW 111 scheduled to expire at 04Z, and the potential for the
QLCS to move into a larger portion of northwest AR in the next 1-2
hours, new watch issuance is possible within the next hour or so.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34069698 34449659 35519543 36299464 36429419 36489280
            34919337 34209511 33479597 33439658 33729703 34069698 

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