MD 0490 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 111…115… FOR SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Southern MO into Southwest IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...115...

Valid 010313Z - 010445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111, 115 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes will
continue with the QLCS moving eastward across southern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS is moving eastward across
southern MO at 03Z. The damaging wind threat should continue for at
least the short term as it moves into southeast MO. In addition,
strong low-level shear will continue to support the threat of brief
tornadoes along the leading edge of the QLCS for the next 1-2 hours.

With time, this system will move into a region of weaker instability
and stronger CINH across extreme southeast MO into southwest IL.
Some weakening will be possible as this occurs, though at least an
isolated damaging wind threat may eventually spread into portions of
southwest IL overnight. 

Some portion of the QLCS may still remain in WW 111 at the scheduled
expiration time of 04Z, so a local extension in time may be required
for WW 111 before the threat spreads entirely into WW 115.

..Dean.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36599253 37429211 38029206 38479197 39029017 39158917
            38898879 38448884 37898922 37348977 36799037 36579062
            36539160 36599253 

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