SPC MD 515



MD 0515 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS

MD 0515 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031720Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal hail threat and brief tornado will be possible
across the Houston area over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
in place across southeast Texas with dewpoints in the lower 70s F. A
small cluster of thunderstorms is located just to the west of the
Houston area, associated with an MCV evident on water vapor imagery.
Surface winds ahead of the MCV are backed to the southeast which is
enhancing low-level shear. The Houston WSR-88D VWP shows veering
winds with height in the lowest 3 km AGL with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity near 220 m2/s2. For this reason, the stronger cells with
the MCV will rotate and could produce a brief tornado. Also, hail
will be possible with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   30189581 29879629 29629633 29409600 29219518 29449487
            29849476 30149493 30189581 

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