SPC MD 529



MD 0529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…FAR WESTERN GEORGIA…AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

MD 0529 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi...central and southern
Arkansas...far western Georgia...and the western half of the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 041650Z - 041815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe -- and possibly isolated tornado -- risk is
expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours, with watch issuance
becoming increasingly likely over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Despite a plume of high-level cloud cover spreading
east across the central Gulf Coast region, objective analysis shows
that heating via filtered sunshine of the moist Gulf airmass across
the discussion area is resulting in a gradually destabilizing
environment, with mixed-layer CAPE now near 1500 J/kg.  As a result,
continued eastward advance of the fairly well-organized convective
line crossing far eastern Louisiana is observed, with additional,
pre-line cellular development also noted over southeast Mississippi.

As modest additional destabilization supports further increases in
storm coverage/intensity, the moderate west-southwest deep-layer
wind field observed across the area should also help to sustain
storm organization and some intensification over the next several
hours.  While flow is generally unidirectional/southwesterly across
much of the region, suggesting that damaging outflow winds will be
the main severe risk, some backing of the low-level flow is noted
over southern portions of the area near the Gulf coast.  Here, some
enhancement to tornado potential is apparent -- and indeed some
rotation/small circulations have been observed at times within the
convective band.  As such, we will continue to monitor environmental
and convective evolution, as it pertains to potential watch type.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29028915 29688934 30398967 31098963 32098891 33028741
            33468574 33038502 31878479 30808489 30028579 29558729
            29258794 29028915 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.