SPC MD 538



MD 0538 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA

MD 0538 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern and central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051559Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited risk for damaging wind gusts locally will continue
into this afternoon across parts of Florida.  Given the limited
risk, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of strong storms moving
across northern Florida, with some embedded complex structures/areas
of circulation.  The background environment across the northern half
of the Peninsula is characterized by a moist/unstable airmass, per
surface observations in conjunction with morning RAOBs, along with
moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft.  The CAPE/shear combination
will continue to support a few stronger cells, with locally
gusty/damaging winds possible with the strongest updrafts.  Along
with the ongoing band of storms crossing northern Florida, a
second/weaker bowing band of cells off the west-central Florida
coast could increase a bit as it encounters the diurnally
destabilizing inland boundary layer.

At this time, the expected isolated and low-end nature of the risk
suggests that a watch will not be required.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   30768142 29698097 28878056 27688076 27398127 27148231
            27458294 28338314 29288228 29988212 30768142 

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