SPC MD 543



MD 0543 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION

MD 0543 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...far west Texas and the Transpecos region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052004Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is occurring over the
Davis Mountains/Transpecos region.  Evolving/local risk for large
hail and damaging winds may eventually warrant WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible imagery shows isolated
thunderstorms increasing over the Davis mountains, and just east
along the dryline.  Somewhat scant moisture in the immediate
vicinity of the initial convection is indicated, though a higher
theta-e/more unstable environment exists just east.  

With time, expect storms to move/possibly propagate eastward, with
gradual increases in storm intensity possible.  While some veering
with height is indicated in the flow field, somewhat weak magnitude
of the flow is also apparent.  Still, given the steep lapse rates
aloft -- and degree of CAPE just east of the current convection,
flow will likely be sufficient for at least some mid-level rotation,
and thus risk for large hail locally.  In addition, the rather deep
mixed layer also indicates some risk for gusty/damaging downdrafts
this afternoon, and into the evening across this area.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30410495 31950431 32540457 32860351 32750208 31820145
            30610129 29690172 29620251 28800316 29290443 30410495 

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