SPC MD 548



MD 0548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0548 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska and Northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 052333Z - 060100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells in southeast Nebraska will
continue to move south-southeastward through the evening and into
the overnight hours. A new severe thunderstorm watch is likely for
northeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Two strong supercells in southeast Nebraska have been
producing hail in excess of 2 inches for the past several hours. The
supercell in Lancaster County, Nebraska collapsed over the town of
Lincoln with reports of wind gusts in excess of 100 mph (measured 87
mph at LNK ASOS) and structural damage. While the high end wind
threat has likely waned from this supercell, expect the severe
weather threat to continue along and ahead of this line of storms.
The temperature has dropped to 51 degrees in Lincoln suggesting that
a strong cold pool is starting to develop from this cluster of
storms. Shear orientation is mostly parallel to the east/west
outflow boundary south of these storms which is not ideal for a
widespread wind damage threat. However, this strengthening cold pool
may serve as a continued initiation zone for additional convection
through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours,
especially as the low-level jet strengthens. As new updrafts
develop, they will likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging
winds given the unstable downstream environment (2000-2500 MLCAPE)
and steep mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km). 

The strong cyclonic rotation within the easternmost supercell will
likely led to more eastward movement than has been observed up to
this point. Therefore, storms may try to move into northwest
Missouri. However, a significantly drier low-level airmass and
significant inhibition east of the Kansas/Missouri state line would
suggest any severe threat in Missouri would be limited.

..Bentley/Grams.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   41009642 40849534 40399502 39539493 38979516 38669554
            38579650 38609750 38779817 39379854 40239870 40569847
            41009642 

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