SPC MD 555


MD 0555 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Front Range of the Rockies

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061850Z - 062045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to at least isolated severe storm development
appears increasingly likely through 3-4 PM MDT, with large hail the
primary potential hazard.  It is not yet clear that this will
require a watch issuance, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Insolation within post-frontal near-surface easterly
upslope flow is contributing to modest boundary layer
destabilization near the Front Range of the Rockies, between the
Palmer and Cheyenne ridges.  This is already contributing to the
initiation of storms near Cheyenne, with additional convection
beginning to form near/west of Denver, beneath difluent upper flow,
and in the presence of strong deep layer shear. 

The shear is largely supported by pronounced veering of
lower/mid-tropospheric flow with height, with westerly deep layer
mean flow only on the order of 20 kt.  This regime appears favorable
for increasing thunderstorm development through 20-22Z, probably
including isolated supercells with primarily a risk for severe hail.
 Although storms will tend to slowly propagate east of the higher
terrain, stronger storm development may persist near the Front Range
into early evening.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39930352 39350338 39120422 39520492 39770524 40090525
            40670525 41820481 41610410 41020411 40310413 39930352 

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