SPC MD 558



MD 0558 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 0558 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southwest through central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062047Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development prior to 6-7 PM appears possible,
but is not certain.  If storms do initiate, supercells are possible,
accompanied by the risk for severe hail and perhaps a tornado or
two.

DISCUSSION...Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, insolation appears
to be contributing moderately large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg, along and south of a stalled frontal zone.  Latest
mesoanalysis also suggests at least some weakening of inhibition
along this corridor, generally focused east-northeast of Garden City
and Dodge City through the Salina vicinity.

This is also occurring beneath 30-60 m mid-level height rises
associated with short wave ridging, and mid/upper support for the
initiation of storms remains unclear through at least early evening.
However, it appears at least possible that increasing low-level
convergence and frontogenetic forcing could support thunderstorm
development in the immediate vicinity of the boundary prior to
07/00Z.  If this occurs, veering of winds with height beneath 30-40
kt westerly 500 mb flow will likely provide sufficient shear for
supercells, accompanied by an initial risk for severe hail and
perhaps an isolated tornado or two.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37860000 37880102 38450069 38949879 39099730 38879683
            38319719 38159821 37860000 

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