SPC MD 613



MD 0613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA/SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

MD 0613 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019

Areas affected...northern South Carolina/southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111845Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Limited severe risk will remain across the area over the
next couple of hours.  WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated thunderstorms
continuing to develop across portions of Georgia and into the
Carolinas, in a region of ascent loosely affiliated with an MCV
moving east-northeast into southwest Georgia.  A relatively
moist/modestly unstable environment (around 500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE) exists across the area, which will continue to support
afternoon storm development across the area.

The latest area VWPs across the area reveal weakly veering low-level
flow, and gradual/moderate increases in speed with height,
supportive of a few weakly rotating updrafts.  As such, one or two
of the strongest storms may be accompanied by brief severe risk,
mainly in the form of gusty winds and marginal hail.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34408153 34478217 34978183 35398132 35518066 35807885
            34937900 34517972 34408053 34408153 

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