SPC MD 617



MD 0617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA

MD 0617 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019

Areas affected...eastern South Carolina coastal plain and into
adjacent southeastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121550Z - 121715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk may increase in tandem with possible
convective development over the next hour or so over eastern South
Carolina and vicinity.  A small WW could become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates modest CU
development over eastern Carolina, in a zone of weak convergence
hinted at in the latest surface analysis.  This region is on the
southwestern fringe of an small MCS moving off the southern NC
coast, and east of the stratiform precipitation crossing
Georgia/central SC at this time.  

The morning CHS RAOB indicated a moist/unstable environment, with
moderately strong west-southwest flow through a deep layer,
suggesting an overall environment supportive of strong, fast-moving
storms.  Should storms develop from within the gradually deepening
cumulus indicated in the latest visible loop, attendant severe risk
could require consideration for small WW issuance.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON   34397864 33777861 33057903 32168035 31748161 32098222
            32258188 32858129 33768035 34497897 34397864 

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