SPC MD 618



MD 0618 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163… FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA

MD 0618 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019

Areas affected...central and eastern portions of the Florida
Panhandle into northern parts of the Florida Peninsula...and
adjacent southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163...

Valid 121611Z - 121715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across WW 163.  Severe risk is
increasing downstream of the watch, with the MCS expected to move
into this region along with some possible/separate development in
advance.  A new WW will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a fairly well-organized, bowing
MCS moving across the Florida Panhandle, and about to spread out of
southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia.  Ahead of this convection,
the moist low-level airmass continues to destabilize -- though
convective cirrus blow-off spreading atop downstream areas should
retard additional heating/destabilization to some degree.

Still, with the airmass supportive of continuation of the ongoing
convective cluster, and with 40 to 50 kt west-southwest flow in the
lower and middle troposphere, potential for damaging winds will
continue to increase across the area.  Though greatest risk should
accompany passage of the bowing MCS, other/more cellular development
may occur in advance of the system, with these storms also possibly
posing local severe risk.  As such, a new WW is likely to be
required in the next hour or so.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29428713 30688526 31588524 31918383 32458220 31788100
            30538171 29288417 29428713 

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