SPC MD 619



MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TRANS-PECOS VICINITY

MD 0619 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

Areas affected...Trans-Pecos Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121830Z - 122030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few discrete storms are expected this afternoon across
the Trans-Pecos region. These storms will primarily pose a threat of
severe hail, though a few damaging wind gusts will also be possible.
Modest instability and lack of storm coverage may preclude a WW,
though convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convective development has begun along the Sierra
Vieja. So far, limited destabilization north and east of this
activity has kept updrafts tethered to the higher terrain. Weak
pressure falls in the Big Bend/Trans-Pecos regions indicate that
modest moisture influx should continue to occur downstream of the
initial thunderstorm activity. As these storms encounter richer
moisture and the mid-level closed low approaches from the east, both
buoyancy (500-750 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (30-40 kts) should
increase and support a few rotating storms capable of severe hail
and a few damaging wind gusts. The overall threat will be mitigated
by modest MLCAPE and lack of storm coverage. A WW may be issued
should convective trends warrant.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30500455 31010435 31490363 31540266 31270191 30830172
            30170232 29940325 30010420 30240448 30500455 

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