SPC MD 621



MD 0621 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

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Mesoscale Discussion 0621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

Areas affected...southern Virginia and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121937Z - 122130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe storm or two may evolve this afternoon across
southwestern Virginia and vicinity, along with attendant risk for
damaging wind gusts and marginal hail.  Threat should remain too
isolated to warrant WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show a very gradual
uptick in convective intensity across the southwestern Virginia
vicinity, near and just ahead of the slowly advancing surface cold
front.  As temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s, surface-based
CAPE has reached 500 J/kg -- which has supported the deepening
convection.

As isolated storms develop over the next 1-2 hours, stronger
updrafts will be aided by gradually increasing flow with height that
is yielding 0-6km bulk shear near 50 kt -- though veered low-level
flow is yielding rather weak shear in the 0-1 km layer.  With these
stronger cells, gusty/locally damaging winds and marginal hail will
likely be a concern through peak heating, until storms begin to
weaken diurnally.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...MRX...

LAT...LON   36908208 37568022 38127946 36877662 36457851 36288129
            36908208 

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