SPC MD 624



MD 0624 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

MD 0624 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

Areas affected...Central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 131346Z - 131545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted for portions of
the central FL Peninsula. Gusty winds and some hail are possible
with strong storms today.

DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak mid-level
short-wave trough is located over the northeastern Gulf basin.
Significant amount of convection has developed ahead of the feature
and new updrafts, with lightning, are maturing onshore from Levy to
Pasco county north of Tampa. 12z sounding from TBW exhibits
substantial PW with modest surface-6km bulk shear (32kt), more than
adequate for sustained multi-cell updrafts and perhaps a few weak
supercells. Latest thinking is the central Peninsula will continue
to warm with surface temperatures rising into the mid 80s south and
just east of the ongoing activity. Increasing buoyancy will only
improve the odds of an expanding cluster of strong convection over
the next several hours. Wind and hail are the most likely threats as
this activity spreads/develops east into the early afternoon hours.
Severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for this region.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27618019 27528287 28878277 29528071 27618019 

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