SPC MD 625



MD 0625 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NC

MD 0625 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131414Z - 131615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible with strong thunderstorms
this morning.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified in the
Raleigh/Durham vicinity. These storms have developed along a surface
boundary, with some large-scale support being provided by a
shortwave trough to the north over the lower Great Lakes. While
instability will likely remain relatively weak (MLCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg), effective shear near 50 kt (as noted on the 12Z GSO sounding)
and relatively cool temperatures aloft will support some hail
potential with the strongest cells. 

Due to the relatively limited spatial extent of the threat, the need
for watch issuance is uncertain at this time, though some threat
will likely continue through the morning along the frontal boundary.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35887940 36067824 36017646 35897582 35727569 35517607
            35437688 35487833 35507923 35887940 

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