SPC MD 627



MD 0627 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166… FOR EASTERN NC

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Mesoscale Discussion 0627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019

Areas affected...Eastern NC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...

Valid 131759Z - 131930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated supercells will continue this
afternoon, with a primary threat of large hail and locally damaging
wind.

DISCUSSION...One long-lived supercell is approaching the NC Outer
Banks at 1755Z, while another cell has recently intensified south of
Raleigh and has produced golf-ball sized hail. These storms have
generally tracked slightly on the cool side of a southward-sagging
frontal boundary. MLCAPE of 500-1250 J/kg and effective shear in
excess of 50 kt will continue to support a conditional supercell
threat with any sustained cells. The primary threat should be large
hail, with perhaps some locally damaging wind. The tornado threat
should be limited by weak low-level flow and the tendency for storms
to be slightly elevated, though a brief tornado remains possible
with any supercell in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. 

The cell south of Raleigh has the potential to be sustained for
awhile this afternoon, but unless it turns more to the
east-southeast, it will become increasingly elevated given that the
cold front has sagged somewhat further south downstream, and some
weakening may ensue. Additional initiation along or just north of
the front remains possible, with a conditional supercell risk
attendant to any sustained development.

..Dean.. 05/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35797881 35687760 35967638 36117590 35887556 35567556
            35317566 35167608 35117671 35047707 35107803 35177841
            35217877 35367890 35797881 

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