SPC MD 629



MD 0629 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK

MD 0629 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019

Areas affected...Northwest into Central/Southeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132005Z - 132230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible this
afternoon. Isolated instances of severe hail/wind will be possible
with the strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across northwest
OK, with towering cumulus noted further southeast into central OK.
This development is occurring in the vicinity of a weak surface
boundary running from northwest into eastern OK. While low-level
moisture remains rather modest across this region, temperatures
warming to near 80F and dewpoints rising to near 60F have resulted
in the development of moderate instability, with MLCAPE of 750-1500
J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses. 

Continued heating and weak convergence along the boundary should
allow for additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Effective shear will generally remain below 30 kt due to weak
low/mid-level flow, but there is some potential for a few multicells
to develop where vertical shear is modestly enhanced near the
surface boundary. Relatively steep lapse rates and cool temperatures
aloft will result in some hail risk with the strongest cells, and
locally severe downbursts will be possible with any stronger cells
as they begin to collapse. Watch issuance is not anticipated due to
the limited coverage and magnitude of the threat.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35709976 36529999 36839999 36909983 36499784 35929624
            35399564 34559570 34229587 34189601 34919737 35489892
            35709976 

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