SPC MD 631



MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR DEEP SOUTH TX

MD 0631 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

Areas affected...Deep South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141716Z - 141915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will be focused along the lower Rio Grande
River over the next few hours. Severe threat is too limited to issue
a watch.

DISCUSSION...Early-day convection across deep south TX and northeast
Mexico has forced an outflow boundary south of the international
border, arcing west into the higher terrain of the Oriental range.
Deep convection has recently redeveloped north of this boundary
within easterly flow and an isolated supercell is slowly organizing
across southern Hildago County into northern Mexico. Hail algorithm
suggests large hail is occurring south of the river in the strongest
portion of this storm. Latest thinking is strong westerly flow aloft
should allow this storm to spread along the international border
toward Brownsville over the next few hours. Hail and wind are the
primary risks but the areal severe extent is too minimal to warrant
a watch.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26259862 26369780 26209691 25669706 25959850 26259862 

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