SPC MD 634



MD 0634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHERN MS

MD 0634 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

Areas affected...Southern MO to Northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151933Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across
the MRGL Risk area into the late afternoon. Hail/wind are the
primary threats, though a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Early-day cluster of convection that spread southeast
across the OH/MS River confluence region has forced a boundary west
to a position arcing from northeast MS-western TN-southeast MO.
Strong boundary-layer heating west of this wind shift has
contributed to negligible CINH such that boundary-layer cu are
slowly deepening across the warm sector. Over the last 30 minutes a
thunderstorm has evolved along the outflow over western Butler
County MO and new updrafts should develop along the favorable
low-level boundary as the afternoon progresses. Forecast soundings
suggest hail/wind may be noted with the strongest storms but this
activity is weakly sheared and should be slow-moving. Convection is
expected to propagate south around 10kt and remain strongly diurnal
in nature.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36949075 35918961 34988894 34508952 34789073 36599249
            36949075 

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