SPC MD 635



MD 0635 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL ND AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN SD

MD 0635 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

Areas affected...Central ND and a small part of northern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 152023Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
next few hours across central ND. Hail/wind are possible and a
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
low-level lapse rates across the northern High Plains this
afternoon, effectively eliminating capping across this region. Over
the last half hour, moist boundary-layer thermals are deepening from
Adams-southern Mercer County ND immediately ahead of sharp wind
shift. Latest thinking is thunderstorms will soon develop along this
corridor, aided in part by ridge-suppressing short-wave trough that
will dig into the upper Red River Valley this evening. Latest CAMs
support this scenario and hail/wind are potential hazards with this
activity.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45920163 47630098 48439999 48069837 45849935 45920163 

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