SPC MD 636



MD 0636 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167… FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA…NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

MD 0636 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

Areas affected...Central and Eastern North Dakota...Northern South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...

Valid 152308Z - 160115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
central North Dakota over the next couple of hours. Isolated large
hail and wind damage should be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1001 mb low over central
North Dakota with a cold front extending south-southwestward into
western South Dakota. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level
moisture is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in
south south-central North Dakota in the upper 50s and lower 60s F.
In response, a pocket of moderate instability is present with the
RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the surface low on the
northern edge of the stronger instability. In addition to moderate
instability, the WSR-88D VWP at Bismark has 0-6 km shear near 50 kt
suggesting the wind shear environment will support severe
thunderstorm development. Shear will increase some over the next few
hours as the low-level jet strengthens. This will help increase the
severe threat as cells become more mature along the moist axis.
Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. Wind damage
may also occur as well.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45249795 45260035 45460028 45460197 46980209 46990174
            47240170 47220136 47550136 47490185 47600225 47730224
            47780238 47870239 47910102 48600106 48610038 48530037
            48529951 48399949 48389893 48559899 48539833 48259829
            48219839 48079839 48029853 47579850 47179846 46649846
            46639805 45249795 

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