SPC MD 637



MD 0637 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167… FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA…NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

MD 0637 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...North-central to Northeast
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...

Valid 160105Z - 160300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across east-central North Dakota is
likely to gradually decrease this evening. Hail and wind damage will
be primary threats. Weather watch issuance is not expected to the
east of the current watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a broken line of strong
to severe thunderstorms located from just north of Grand Forks
south-southwestward to near Jamestown. The line is located along an
axis of moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Aberdeen and Grand
Forks WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 kt range along
with gradually veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km AGL.
This wind profile will continue to support severe thunderstorm
development with isolated supercells possible. Storms that exhibit
rotation will have the potential to produce hail and isolated wind
damage. The severe threat is expected to gradually decrease across
eastern North Dakota over the next couple of hours as instability
begins to drop across the northern Plains.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45249795 46649801 46649764 47229766 47269746 47689742
            47669687 48119712 48589715 48569899 48399897 48399985
            47829981 47830009 46640009 46640067 46520055 46310054
            46160059 45880048 45530047 45250017 45249795 

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