SPC MD 639



MD 0639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WY…NE PANHANDLE

MD 0639 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Areas affected...Southeast WY...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161922Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch is not expected through 21z.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection is gradually deepening across
southeast WY and the southwest NE Panhandle. This activity is
evolving within a very steep lapse-rate environment characterized by
approximately 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but strongly sheared through 6km.
Latest satellite imagery suggests isolated thunderstorms will
eventually evolve northwest along the Laramie range into central WY.
This activity is expected to spread/develop east-northeast into a
region where easterly boundary-layer flow should be maintained into
the late evening hours. While mid-afternoon convection may only
produce gusty winds/marginally severe hail, current thinking is more
organized and robust convection will hold off until later this
evening. WW is not anticipated through 21z due to the high-based and
weak nature of ongoing convection. However, a watch may be warranted
later this evening as LLJ strengthens after dusk.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40930354 41610460 42520549 42970487 42330303 41320188
            40930354 

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