SPC MD 640



MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA

MD 0640 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central Illinois into central Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

Valid 161947Z - 162145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms continues, with rapid
new thunderstorm development possible near the Champaign vicinity by
4-5 PM CDT.  Trends will continue to be monitored for the
possibility of an additional watch, or southward watch extension.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of the convective outflow and stronger
associated thunderstorm development continue to progress
southeastward at 30+ kt (across and southeast of the central
Illinois/Indiana state border area).  At least some recent general
weakening of ongoing convection is evident in latest MRMS CAPPI
data, and this may continue with activity spreading into the less
unstable environment across Indiana.  However, mixed-layer CAPE has
increased in excess of 3000 J/kg along and to the southwest of the
southwestern flank of the convective outflow, northeast of
Springfield through the Decatur, Champaign and Mattoon vicinities,
where it appears that mid-level inhibition has yet to increase
substantially.  As weak mid-level convection, now evident in
satellite imagery south through east of Peoria, progresses 
southeastward along the outflow boundary, there appears potential
for rapid new intense thunderstorm development by 21-22Z.  This may
include a supercell or two initially, with a risk for severe hail
and perhaps a tornado.

..Kerr.. 05/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   40398677 40698628 40128581 39678633 39348788 39888934
            40488904 40228792 40398677 

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