SPC MD 641


MD 0641 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/northern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 162152Z - 162345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated,
marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon and early
evening. The limited spatial scope of the threat will likely
preclude watch issuance, though trends in storm intensity/coverage
will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Ascent ahead of an upper-level trough has helped to
initiate a few storms in central Idaho. A relatively cloud-free area
has heated up into the low 70s F with dewpoints in the low to
mid-50s F in a few locations allowing for very modest MLCAPE of
around 500 J/kg. A storm now entering Clearwater County, ID has
shown signs of rotation on KMSX imagery, motion to the right of the
mean wind, and an inch MESH core over the last 30-60 minutes. VAD
data from the region shows 0-6 km shear around 40 kts, which will
support enough storm organization to pose a risk of mainly damaging
wind gusts. Marginally severe hail is also possible, with the
stronger, rotating storms, but mid-level lapse rates of around 6.5
C/km, as well as the meager buoyancy, should limit the overall
threat. The overall threat should decrease as boundary-layer
stabilization begins early this evening. A WW is not expected, but
trends in storm intensity will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   47431722 47701655 47401530 46611473 46091487 45911572
            46171666 46661717 47431722 

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