SPC MD 642



MD 0642 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169… FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN INDIANA…FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY

MD 0642 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Southern Indiana...Far
Northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

Valid 162233Z - 170030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
across southern Indiana and may affect southeast Illinois as well. A
new weather watch may need to be considered as the storms approach
the southern edge of the watch early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an MCS centered just to
the south of Indianapolis. The MCS is located along the eastern edge
of a moderately unstable airmass and is associated with a shortwave
trough evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, the RAP is
showing a jet max of 30 to 40 kt in the low to mid-levels across
eastern Illinois. This feature is acting as a rear inflow jet,
providing support for wind damage along leading edge of the MCS. The
RAP is also analyzing an elevated mixed layer across much of the mid
Mississippi Valley with steep mid-level lapse rates across
south-central Indiana. For this reason, the stronger cells within
the MCS will have a potential for isolated large hail.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38518666 38498746 38408776 38548762 38628794 39368795
            39368844 39898844 39878753 39618753 39608701 39888698
            39868670 39938669 39908620 40218618 40218585 39968585
            39918561 39778559 39758533 39288529 39208543 38928544
            38858563 38738586 38768592 38778628 38718630 38708668
            38518666 

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