SPC MD 645



MD 0645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA…WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO

MD 0645 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...Western and Central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 170157Z - 170400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A hail threat is expected to continue as a cluster of
thunderstorms moves east-southeastward across western and central
Ohio over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of strong
thunderstorms in far northeastern Indiana. The RAP is analyzing a
700 mb jet max in far northwest Ohio which is also likely supporting
the convective cluster. In addition, the cluster is located along
the eastern edge of the elevated mixed layer where mid-level lapse
rates are estimated to be between 6.5 and 7.0 C/km. This combined
with 35-40 kt of effective shear will support a hail threat with the
stronger cells for a few more hours this evening.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41648484 40958541 40228547 39768509 39448304 39618220
            40228169 40978201 41608381 41648484 

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