SPC MD 650



MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IN…FAR NORTHERN KY…MUCH OF OH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WV

MD 0650 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...portions of eastern IN...far northern KY...much of
OH and portions of western WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 171917Z - 172045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase across the Ohio Valley
vicinity this afternoon. A few strong storms capable of hail and
locally damaging winds are possible. Convective trends will be
monitored, and a watch may be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of the
southward advancing cold front in northwest and central OH.
Additional development was occurring across central IN ahead of a
MCV noted in water vapor imagery and surface analysis. This MCV is
tied to earlier convection across IA and IL and is tracking
southeast through larger-scale northwest flow across the region.
Strong heating ahead of these features has resulted in temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s while dewpoints have increased into the
low and mid 60s F beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. As a result,
MLCAPE ranged from 500-1500 J/kg. Bulk shear is mostly weak
currently (less than 25 kt) but is forecast to modestly increase
over the next several hours, due in part to the MCV. As a result,
strong storms are expected to become more widespread and a couple of
severe storms are possible. Locally damaging gusts and near-1 inch
hail is possible with the strongest cells. Coverage of more intense
cells both in space and time remains somewhat uncertain, but a watch
may be needed this afternoon.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   38978539 39278585 39518605 39918594 40268574 40768487
            40978439 40988397 40878299 40728154 40648118 40398082
            40078072 39468085 39058116 38698152 38468183 38398204
            38298273 38298333 38478417 38728487 38978539 

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