SPC MD 651



MD 0651 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DAVIES MOUNTAINS AREA…PERMIAN BASIN…RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS

MD 0651 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the Davies Mountains area...Permian
Basin...Rio Grande Valley of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 171936Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated supercell development appears
increasingly possible through 4-6 PM CDT.  Although it is not
certain that a watch will be needed, primarily due to sparse
coverage, trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing across the
Davis Mountains area into the vicinity of Fort Stockton.  This is
occurring in response to orographic forcing and boundary layer
destabilization associated with daytime heating.  Beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates, southeasterly surface flow is advecting
mid/upper 60s dew points into this region, which appears to be
contributing to large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.

The leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls, on the southern
periphery of amplified troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies,
is currently in the process of overspreading the region, and may
contribute to sufficient weakening of inhibition to allow for the
initiation of widely scattered storms by the 21-23Z time frame.  

Southwesterly deep layer ambient mean flow is somewhat modest, on
the order of 20-30 kt, but pronounced veering with height of lower
to mid tropospheric wind fields is contributing to strong vertical
shear northeast and east of the Davis Mountains.  Given the
thermodynamic profiles, the environment appears more than conducive
for at least isolated discrete supercells, accompanied by the risk
for large to very large hail, locally strong surface gusts and
perhaps a brief/weak tornado, as they tend to propagate eastward
through late afternoon.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30020332 30630334 31510209 31020147 30400159 29480087
            28590138 28570180 29380206 29590265 30020332 

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