SPC MD 652



MD 0652 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171… FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO…SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE…SOUTHEAST WYOMING

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Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska
Panhandle...southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171...

Valid 172207Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail this
evening. Most storms, particularly in CO/WY, will begin to lose
their intensity as the boundary layer cools this evening. Those that
move into western Nebraska may be sustained as the low-level jet
will help to maintain instability.

DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms with a history of large hail --
one 2 inch report noted in Sedgwick County, CO, recently -- have
been ongoing near and behind a surface cold front in northeastern
Colorado. Steep mid-level lapse rates of at least 8 C/km and mid 40s
to low 50s dewpoints have contributed to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. In
general, storms that migrate farther to the north will encounter
decreasing amounts of both effective shear and instability. Storms
that remain near the boundary or move more to the northeast into
western Nebraska, will continue to pose a threat for large hail.

..Wendt.. 05/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42570524 42610406 42010406 41990265 41080263 41010204
            40450205 40430281 39550277 39550365 39980366 40010501
            40350506 40360496 41010493 41030528 42570524 

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