SPC MD 654



MD 0654 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174… FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO…MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA…A SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY…AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA

MD 0654 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...southeastern Ohio...much of West Virginia...a small
portion of eastern Kentucky...and western and central Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

Valid 172337Z - 180130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues in/near WW 174.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered strong/locally severe
storms crossing the discussion area, with greatest short-term severe
risk currently over southern West Virginia.  Here, a loosely
organized cluster of storms continues moving southeastward, within a
background kinematic environment featuring moderate (around 30 kt)
west-northwesterly deep-layer flow.  

Thermodynamically, objective analyses indicate roughly 1000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE -- including areas downstream of the watch into
western Virginia.  While isolated cells are occurring near and east
of the mountains into Virginia, it remains uncertain whether a more
organized cold pool can evolve with the West Virginia storms over
the next hour or so, which would increase the likelihood for severe
risk to spread across the higher terrain into Virginia.  At this
time, we expect that risk east of the Appalachian crest into western
Virginia should remain limited, and thus new/downstream watch is not
currently expected.  We will continue to monitor evolution across
West Virginia, however, for any signs that downstream severe risk
may be trending upward.

A few stronger cells are also ongoing north of the watch, across
eastern Ohio, but severe risk here should remain low-end/isolated,
and limited to the next 1-2 hours.

In the mean time, within the WW area, risk for locally
gusty/damaging winds will continue across the West Virginia
vicinity, along with marginal hail potential with the strongest
cells.

..Goss.. 05/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   38557931 37717799 37107798 36617982 36698167 37518227
            38078319 38628314 40008201 40278077 39157995 38557931 

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