SPC MD 655



MD 0655 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173… FOR PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY REGION OF TEXAS

MD 0655 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...parts of the Pecos Valley region of Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

Valid 180000Z - 180100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- mainly in the form of very large hail --
continues across portions of the Pecos Valley vicinity -- within WW
173.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of severe/supercell
storms ongoing near the Pecos Valley, in the Pecos/Crockett County
areas, while a gradually weakening left-split storm crosses western
Upton county.

The airmass across this area remains strongly unstable, with
mixed-layer CAPE around 3000 J/kg -- which suggests that
continuation of the convection is likely.  Additionally, with an
evening increase in a south-southeasterly low-level jet across the
western half of Texas expected, this likewise suggests ongoing
storms/severe risk -- and perhaps some potential for
eventual/upscale growth later tonight, which could enhance the wind
potential.

In the mean time, very large hail remains the primary severe threat
with isolated/supercell storms over the area, with a tornado or two
also possible -- particularly as low-level flow increases over the
next few hours.

..Goss.. 05/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29620264 30570318 31630218 32100121 31670096 30360049
            29040046 29500123 29740178 29800246 29620264 

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