SPC MD 656



MD 0656 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

MD 0656 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas and eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 180000Z - 180200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Towering cumulus have formed in an area of increased
convergence along the dryline. These storms will be capable of large
hail and damaging wind gusts. A threat for a tornado cannot be ruled
out as well with the expectation that low-level moisture and wind
fields will improve with time. A watch may be needed should
confidence in storm coverage/sustenance increase.

DISCUSSION...An area of increases surface convergence has become
apparent on visible satellite along the dryline from near Garden
City, KS southward to near Beaver, OK. This appears to be in
response to an ejecting wave, as seen on moisture channel imagery,
moving rapidly out of northeast New Mexico into southwest Kansas.
While storm coverage is still a bit uncertain, any storm that can
form will likely be discrete given the 45-50 kts of effective shear
near perpendicular to the boundary. With steep mid-level lapse rates
and large instability (nearing 3000 J/kg MLCAPE), large hail will be
a concern. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible.

A tornado threat also cannot be ruled out. Dewpoints range from the
upper 60s in OK to low 60s in southwest KS. Localized pressure falls
have been maximized in northwest OK and have caused surface winds to
back to southeasterly and KDDC VAD profiles show relatively strong
low-level veering. With time, the low-level moisture/wind fields
should improve as the low-level jet increases. A watch may be needed
if storm coverage/sustenance is more than anticipated.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37840096 38160085 38480027 38299988 37399964 36879963
            36439996 36340059 36610085 37840096 

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