SPC MD 682



MD 0682 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 189…190… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX

MD 0682 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern into southwest LA and
southeast TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...190...

Valid 190453Z - 190630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189, 190 continues.

SUMMARY...A continued threat for damaging winds a few tornadoes will
continue across WW 189 and 190 the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A series of intense bowing segments continue to track
east/northeast across eastern TX into northern LA. Most recently, a
42 kt gust was measured just southeast of Shreveport. Radar trends
have generally been steady or increasing in terms of intensity with
this bowing segment over northwest LA as well as with the two
segments further to the southwest across east-central TX. Damaging
winds will continue to be a concern with this activity. Furthermore,
low level shear continues to be supportive of rotation and tornadoes
could still occur with any mesovortex that develops along the apex
of the bows. Depending on trends over the next hour or so, portions
of WW 189 may need to be extended in time as current track estimate
does not move convection east of the watch until after 07z.

Additionally, showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
increase to the south of these bowing segments across Tornado Watch
190 in southeasterly low level confluent flow. This more discrete
convection could pose a greater tornado threat as cells track toward
the Sabine River overnight if they become better organized/more
intense given little inhibition, a very moist boundary layer, and
favorable 0-1 km shear.

..Leitman.. 05/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31419570 32299431 32659336 32909248 32829207 32449190
            31969192 31319251 30409373 30329474 30439547 30679582
            30989608 31359583 31419570 

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