SPC MD 683



MD 0683 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

MD 0683 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Areas affected...central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 190602Z - 190700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least a low-end tornado threat may extend south and
east of the existing watches. Locally damaging winds are possible as
well.

DISCUSSION...A storm complex continues to move east across northern
LA, and from southeast TX toward the Sabine River. While northern
portions are linear, north-south oriented bands of storms continue
to form to the south, with midlevel rotation noted on radar.
Meanwhile, an outflow boundary continues to move south into central
MS and northeast LA.

The air mass ahead of these storms is very moist, and substantially
unstable especially over LA. While deep-layer shear will decrease
through the night due to the upper trough lifting across MO,
sufficient southwest 850 mb winds will remain with shear at least
marginally favorable for supercells. In the short term, area VWPs
indicate 0-1 SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2, supporting a tornado
threat.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31579364 31839325 31989274 32129226 32299116 32279082
            32039062 31459076 30679144 30389197 30179258 30169351
            30249384 30659399 31259393 31579364 

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