SPC MD 690



MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

MD 0690 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Areas affected...Western Michigan and Northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 192027Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts possible, watch is being issued.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows an arc of convection crossing Lake
Michigan and entering portions of western Michigan. These storms
have a history of producing localized damaging wind gusts across
portions of southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois. The airmass
ahead of these storms has been slow to destabilize, as ongoing
convection/trailing stratiform precipitation and associated cloud
cover has limited insolation across the region thus far. Despite
regional satellite showing a narrow ribbon of clearing now entering
the region, instability is expected to remain quite weak (MLCAPE <
1000 J/kg). However, a few damaging wind gusts are possible, given
effective bulk shear of 55-65 kt. A watch is being issued for this
region.

..Karstens/Hart.. 05/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   40968565 40948678 41278715 42188644 43008618 43708648
            44258619 44218495 43008394 41408454 41148495 40968565 

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