SPC MD 801



MD 0801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KS…FAR WEST-CENTRAL MO…NORTHEAST OK

MD 0801 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Areas affected...eastern KS...far west-central MO...northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 260121Z - 260215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe gusts are the primary severe hazard this evening
with the approaching squall line as it moves east over the Flint
Hills and eastern KS.  A new severe thunderstorm watch is likely
with an issuance in the 9-10pm CDT period.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line over
south-central KS moving to the east towards the I-135 corridor.  The
airmass over eastern KS is characterized as moderately unstable with
2600 J/kg MLCAPE noted on the Topeka, KS 00z raob.  Ample 0-6km
shear (35-45kt) and 7.5 degree 700-500mb lapse rates will support
storm organization with the evolving squall line as it moves towards
the eastern edge of severe thunderstorm watch 245.  Severe gusts
60-70mph associated with the line are possible.  Given the moist
environment, a boundary-layer eddy/squall line mesovortex could
result in a localized swath of significant wind damage.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38559691 38809726 39349616 39429470 39129403 38309402
            36409551 36079609 36069667 36529699 37859658 38559691 

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