SPC MD 899


MD 0899 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301810Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated-scattered elevated storms may become
surface-based this afternoon across southwest Texas. Large hail is
the primary threat and a watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving over
Arizona/New Mexico with the eastern periphery beginning to affect
portions of west Texas and provide forcing for ascent over the
region. A surface cold front has driven southward and is near the
Rio Grande. Low-level clouds remain across portions of southwest
Texas indicating low-level stability, but a warm/moist airmass is in
place with weak upslope flow. Storms have formed south of the front
and moved over the top of the weakly stable airmass while other
elevated storms have formed over the region. As storms encounter
less low-level clouds and increasing surface heating, they may
become surface-based, especially the stronger storms.

Storms will continue trying to develop over the areas, but only
isolated storms may persist. With the stronger, more persistent
storms, large hail is likely and damaging winds and a tornado or two
may become possible if the storms can become surface-based. This
early convection may reinforce low-level clouds over the Trans-Pecos
and limit low-level destabilization later this afternoon. However,
confidence remains another MCD is likely needed west of this MCD for
surface-based severe storms this afternoon/evening.

..Nauslar/Grams.. 05/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28930065 29430130 29590172 29650227 30530281 31180297
            31570288 31950212 31950110 31720030 31199972 30409961
            29869981 29270024 28930065 

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