SPC MD 1000



MD 1000 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTHWEST TX

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Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2019

Areas affected...portions of southwest OK and northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060110Z - 060245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe wind gusts are possible this
evening. Overall threat should diminish with time over the next
couple of hours and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A squall line continues to progress eastward across the
TX South Plains vicinity this evening. This line of convection has
produced several severe wind gusts during the late afternoon hours.
Most recently, gusts have ranged from around 40 mph to 60 mph per
West Texas Mesonet obs. Radar presentation has shown a gradual
weakening trend with occasional increases in individual cells at
times. Additionally, outflow surging ahead of the line was noted in
radar reflectivity data, further supporting a gradual weakening
trend. That being said, an unstable and at least weak-CINH
downstream environment exists ahead of the line with several outflow
boundaries surging west and southwestward ahead of the convection.
There is some potential that additional storms could develop along
these myriad of boundaries this evening. Any cell that develops
along these boundaries could produce strong gusts, especially given
a weak shear environment supportive of downbursts.

While an isolated severe threat could continue for another couple of
hours, a watch is not anticipated at this time as increasing
boundary layer inhibition and weak shear should temper the overall
threat.

..Leitman/Grams.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35140086 35079928 34599875 33879852 32189930 32070041
            32230161 32590183 33390127 34420104 35000100 35140086 

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