SPC MD 1001



MD 1001 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST LA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2019

Areas affected...southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060427Z - 060600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for an isolated/brief tornado may persist across
parts of southern LA the next few hours. A watch is not expected at
this time, though trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A supercell embedded in a storm cluster across eastern
Cameron Parish southeast of Lake Charles LA has recently shown
strong low level rotation after a couple of cell mergers. This storm
was strengthening in the vicinity of a surface warm front ahead of a
surface low near the southeast TX/LA coast. A narrow band of modest
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and 40+ kt effective shear will continue to
shift northeast across southern LA the next few hours. Latest VWP
data from the LCH 88-D show enlarged, curved low level hodographs
with greater than 400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH with only slightly less
favorable hodographs further north and east. Given a very moist
airmass will reside over this region through the overnight hours and
backed low level winds in the vicinity of the warm front will
maximize low level SRH, at least a low-end threat for a brief
tornado could persist into the overnight hours. The overall threat
is expected to be confined to a narrow corridor ahead of the surface
low, a watch is not expected at this time, though trends will be
monitored.

..Leitman/Grams.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...

LAT...LON   29559385 30009371 30449345 30649268 30579202 30379170
            29789162 29269203 29479355 29559385 

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