SPC MD 995


MD 0995 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2019

Areas affected...northwest MO into northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331...

Valid 052221Z - 052315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331

SUMMARY...Isolated storms were continuing to develop westward across
northwest MO into northeast KS late this afternoon. Some aerial
extension of WW 331 may be needed across parts of northwest MO, but
th severe threat should become more limited with westward extent
into northeast KS.

DISCUSSION...Towering CU and now a couple of lightning strikes along
the cold front in northwestern MO into northeast KS were noted over
the last 30 minutes. Some intensification of this convection is
expected late this afternoon, especially across MO where an uncapped
airmass exists ahead of the front. If this occurs and cells
currently in Andrew and Gentry counties shift southward, an aerial
extension of WW 331 may be needed. 

With westward extent, severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. 
While a moderately unstable airmass exists with modest midlevel
lapse rates in place, effective shear is quite weak and will limit
overall storm organization/longevity in absence of stronger ascent.
Additionally, RAP forecast soundings suggest MLCIN will increase,
both due to loss of daytime heating, but also as weak height rises
impinge on the region ahead of the NM upper trough. Finally, any
influence from stronger forcing associated with the shortwave trough
over the Midwest will continue to diminish at that feature shifts
eastward this evening. As such, any severe storms that develop in KS
will likely remain limited in time as well as intensity.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39459704 39779688 39959646 39979544 40009422 39859395
            39319303 38949281 38679301 38579368 38759551 38989654
            39269694 39459704 

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