SPC MD 1002



MD 1002 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060754Z - 061000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for a brief tornado or two continues across a small
portion of southwestern Louisiana.  Limited spatial nature of the
threat continues to preclude serious WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest LCH radar loop continues to show very weak
rotation within numerous showers and thunderstorms moving
northeastward out of the northwestern Gulf and onshore. 
Occasionally stronger circulations have been observed inland, across
eastern Cameron/Jefferson Davis/Acadia Parishes over the past hour.

The convection is ongoing just ahead of a weak surface low analyzed
just west of the Sabine River in southeast Texas, near a warm front
which extends eastward from the low across coastal areas of
Louisiana.  Here, a small warm sector has nosed inland across the
LCH county warning area, supporting persistent convection.  

With low-level flow backed ahead of the low/near the warm front,
veering flow with height through the lowest couple of km is yielding
favorable shear (0-1 km shear in excess of 30 kt).  Given this small
area of favorable CAPE/shear, risk for a tornado or two will
continue, possibly spreading gradually northeastward with time in
conjunction with limited northward advance of the warm front. 
Still, with the area quite limited spatially, a tornado watch is not
currently anticipated.

..Goss/Edwards.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679339 30229299 30549280 30629259 30539213 29919165
            29509180 29169305 29389386 29679339 

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